With Mike Duggan bowing out of participating in the next mayoral election in 2025, on the surface, it seems like Detroit's prospects for consistent momentum in economic growth couldn't be more up in the air at the moment. This is because (as we see being reported by the major news sources in town) Duggan's mayorship, which is the second longest in the city's modern history, leaves a "big suit to fill" due to his closeness with Detroit's business community based on a governmental approach of unrestricted control by our malevolent neighborhood Billionaires in return for positive press has worked wonders for his supposed popularity.
However, here at Black Label Detroit, we pride ourselves by offering cynical lucidity to our readers which differentiates this publication from all the other obscure scrawlings of rags that call themselves "newspapers" or "magazines" here in Metro Detroit. Seeing as all the other publications are breathlessly following Duggan's every Machiavellian move in his self-imposed lame duck administration, it would suit the public far better to analyze in broad detail who will Duggan's machine will elevate to the top job just as he sees the sunset of his mayorship.
This is a profoundly important task to undertake simply because so many residents of the city seem to think that no machine exists at all. Those who may be in favor of Duggan's governance style might suggest that there's absolutely nothing wrong with the way that Detroit has been governed, while radicals will suggest that the machine's destruction will end up leading towards a new, better city. This publication, obviously, leans more towards the latter sentiment, solely because "business as usual" will lead the city and region into a financial death spiral that has been discussed in a previous report from Black Label Detroit.
So, the following scenarios are disseminated here to prepare radicals for all possible outcomes when it comes to next year's mayoral election. They are random and do not follow any particular order of least likely to most likely or vice versa:
Scenario 1
Despite a crowded primary field, the vast majority of candidates have policy proposals to the left of Duggan and any other Dugganite candidates [could be Mary Sheffield and another councilmember]. Despite a large number of candidates, the two finalists are both progressives/Radicals, and the one who'll win will win on a mandate for popular policies such as promising to build region-wide heavy rail transit. Since the winner campaigned on Leftist policy goals, they will repeatedly fail to make their campaign promises because of entrenched opposition by both bureaucrats in government and members of city council who'll try to force them to conform with financial restraints established by the bankruptcy in 2014. Their popularity will hit an all time low early on in their term, and they'll abandon their campaign promises to the voters in an effort to build consensus, this will fail to win over the business community, and this hypothetical mayor will go down as the most ineffective mayor in the city's modern history. They will lose their reelection campaign to a Dugganite in 2029, who'll undo all of their policies.
Scenario 2
Due to vote splitting between progressive/radical candidates, no one to the left of Duggan makes it to the final ballot. Instead, two Dugganites will battle each other in the general election. Seeing as he became more socially progressive as his term continued, Duggan will come out and endorse the candidate who will seem to be a continuation of his social and economic policies, this candidate, enjoying the endorsement and the inevitable funding boom that it'll include boosted campaign donations will win the election easily. This hypothetical mayor may pivot to the left during their mayorship in order to fend off the proposition of a recall election, or, if not, the mayorship will flip to a radical in 2029.
Scenario 3
The city's progressive/radical voter base concentrates on one candidate while there are many Dugganites that agree with his policy approach who'll run for the mayorship. Duggan endorses the leading progressive/radical in exchange for them to moderate their views on issues like policing, the budget, and public transportation. This endorsement allows the supposed radical to win office, but they become unpopular since they govern as a moderate/fiscal conservative. This fictional mayor decides to run again, yet, is outflanked by both moderates and progressives/radicals who want different things out of the city government, which, results in the mayor lasting only one term and a heated race between hardliners on both sides.
Scenario 4
In a wide primary field, early on it seems as if there are clear frontrunners for both progressives/radicals and Dugganites. While lesser known candidates refuse to drop out after the primary on either side, the two frontrunners will be seen as "the only electable choices". Since the race could go either way, you'd have Mike Duggan himself either encouraging consolidation around the Dugganite frontrunner, and/or, you'd see figures like Kwame Kilpatrick giving "anti-endorsements" to candidates who the machine will decide is a "dangerous" candidate. With the vote splitting that comes from a large field, a Dugganite is more than likely to get the slight edge on the final ballot.
Conclusion:
The mayoral race is bound to be one of the most anticipated political events that this city has seen in it's history. Both Metro Detroit's business establishment and the multiple radical groups in and around the city will see the 2025 race as a "make or break" moment for Detroit's future. Whether things turn out for the better for radicals like us is a question that must be subject to serious consideration. With the right mayor in place, it'd cement the mayor of Detroit as nearly the same level of political prestige as the office of Governor. The clock is ticking and swift action is needed.
Black Label Detroit
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